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Marketing mix modeling

Find out what advertising adds to your sales, and where the next dollar should go.

Donut Analytics builds marketing mix models (MMM), also called media mix models, that measure advertising against all of your sales, in store and online. We build on Google's open-source Meridian. The model shows what advertising adds on top of the sales you would have had anyway, and where the next dollar earns the most.

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What’s included

What you get

  • An answer to “is it working?”

    Advertising measured against all sales, in store and online, separated from what would have happened anyway.

  • Built on Meridian

    Google's open-source MMM architecture. It measures advertising against the baseline, controlling for the macro environment.

  • Next-dollar reads

    Which channels earn the most on the next dollar, and where returns start to flatten.

  • Monthly refreshes

    For our retail client we refresh the model every month, and they plan the mix with it.

  • A case for the budget

    Numbers leadership can see in their own sales, not an ad platform's report.

Tools we use for this

How we use each tool

How it works

How a media mix model works

An illustration in three steps. The shapes are made up, not any client's data.

  1. Line up the data

    The model looks at weekly sales next to weekly ad spend in each channel. It also takes in the things that move sales on their own, like seasons, holidays and promotions.

  2. Separate what ads added

    It estimates how much of sales would have happened anyway (the baseline) and how much each channel added on top. Ads keep working for a few weeks after they run, and the model allows for that.

  3. Move the next dollar

    Past a point, each extra dollar in a channel earns less than the one before. The model shows where the next dollar earns more, and that guides where the budget goes.

The split between baseline and ads is the model's estimate from the data, not a controlled test.

Proof

From our results

Real client work, kept anonymous. Each number links to how it was measured.

FAQ

Questions about marketing mix modeling

What is marketing mix modeling?
A marketing mix model (MMM), or media mix model, estimates how much each advertising channel adds to sales on top of the baseline sales you would have had anyway. It works from sales and spend over time, so it doesn't need to track individual people.
What is Meridian?
Meridian is Google's open-source marketing mix modeling framework. Our media mix models are built on its architecture.
How is an MMM different from ad platform reporting?
Ad platforms report the sales they can see and claim. A media mix model measures all sales, in store and online, against all advertising, and separates what ads added from what would have happened anyway.
Does a media mix model prove that ads caused sales?
No. It is a model estimate, not an experiment. We treat its reads as input to decisions that people still make, and lift tests can check it where they fit.
How often is the model updated?
For our retail client we refresh it every month, and they use each refresh to steer their media mix.

Guides: What is a media mix model?How to measure marketing when most sales happen in stores FAQ

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Find out what your ads add.

Tell us what you’re working on. We’ll build a measurement-first plan for your brand. Email hello@donutanalytics.com or call (407) 394-9720.

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